Premier League predictions: Jones Knows says back Leeds to send Everton further into trouble | Football News

Let our tipster Jones Knows take you into the Premier League weekend as he provides his insight, predictions and betting angles.

Manchester United vs Southampton, Saturday 12.30pm

I’m looking to get Southampton on my side here but not in the match result markets. Despite their fantastic result at Tottenham in midweek, they can rarely be trusted to cause an upset away at the top-ranked teams due to their inability to withstand attacking pressure on their goal. In 20 away matches against the traditional ‘big six’, Saints have won just two under Ralph Hasenhuttl, so even odds as big as 5/1 with Sky Bet for an away win don’t interest me here.

And, despite not quite finding the right balance at United, Ralf Rangnick has only lost one of his nine Premier League games.

However, Hasenhuttl – as seen at Spurs where Saints posted 23 shots and won eight corners – always sets his team up to be aggressive and attack-minded when venturing to a top-four chasing team. And let’s be honest, United are here for the taking if Southampton can defend properly and attack with their usual zest.

This season Saints are averaging 5.83 corners per 90 minutes, including winning over their market expectation away at Arsenal (8), Liverpool (7) and Manchester City (5), while their shots per match average is 12.65. Hasenhuttl’s teams are not renowned for their ability to take chances. This means it is likely that Saints will enjoy sustained periods of pressure in the match in their bid for goals, hence the predicted high corner and shots count. I’m willing to back them to hit both those averages in this game and Sky Bet are offering 9/2 on them to win five or more corners and post 13 or more shots.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Southampton to win five or more corners (11/10 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Southampton to win five or more corners and have 12 or more shots (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Brentford vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

After their timid showing at Norwich, my belief that Crystal Palace are in relegation form away from home seems pretty justified. Their only away win this season remains the one at Manchester City.

That is barmy.

In 11 away matches they have amassed just a total expected goals figure of 9.4 this season, failing to score at Leeds, Tottenham, Manchester United and Chelsea. As mentioned in midweek, Patrick Vieira had similar problems setting his team up to attack on the road at Nice, where his team averaged just 0.9 goals per 90 minutes in his 37 matches managing the French side away from home. Perhaps his possession-based, controlled style is tough to implement when opposition teams play with more belief at home.

I think Brentford can shut them out here in what looks like a game Thomas Frank has been targeting judging by his team selection of resting Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo at Manchester City.

Brentford may have lost seven of their last eight Premier League games but performance levels remain consistently better than the results they are getting. Apart from against Manchester City, on all occasions this season when they have not won the match at home, Frank’s side have won the expected-goals battle – even in the 3-3 draw with Liverpool and the 1-0 defeat to Chelsea.

It is a process which is actually the sixth-best home record in the Premier League when it comes to expected goals. They can win a low-scoring game.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Brentford to win to nil (100/30 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Everton vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

The last thing Everton need right now is the Leeds tornado knocking down their door.

Frank Lampard’s team have lost 11 of their last 14 Premier League games and are very much in a relegation scrap. Things may get worse here, too, with Leeds very backable at 19/10 with Sky Bet for the away win.

In fixtures like these where Leeds face off against a genuine relegation-threatened outfit, it is most certainly worth backing them as their man-to-man style usually sees their extra quality shine through. Since promotion, in 14 fixtures against teams in the bottom five of the Premier League, Leeds have won 10, scoring 27 times in the process.

This match also screams cards.

Referee Graham Scott may have a job on keeping this one under wraps in the cauldron of Goodison Park. In four rather tempestuous meetings in the Championship between Lampard’s Derby and Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds, there was an average of 8.25 cards shown per match with the second leg of the play-off semi-final at Elland Road producing 15 cards!

When you throw in the likely big-game atmosphere and the fact Leeds games average the most cards per match in the Premier League this season (4.9) then backing cards is the way to go. The 50 or more booking points (10 for a yellow, 20 for a red) at 6/5 with Sky Bet looks a very fair price.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | BETTING ANGLE: 50 or more booking points (6/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

JONES KNOWS BEST BET: 50 or more booking points & Leeds to have 14 or more shots (5/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Watford vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

The sample size is a small one but I think it is safe to assume that Roy Hodgson has already stamped his authority all over Watford just two games into the job.

Just one goal conceded from two away matches with an average expected goals against figure of 0.85 compared to 1.71 before Hodgson walked through the door certainly bodes well for Watford’s chances of becoming harder to beat this season. The eye test backs that theory up, too. Having covered their game at the London Stadium on Tuesday it was clear to see how the manager has installed a way of working without the ball and an enthusiasm for defending, especially within Samir and Hassane Kamara, who were both excellent. West Ham were fortunate to score.

Hodgson must now get to work on making them more of a threat going the other way. Watford have scored just one goal in their last five Premier League games. The return of Ismaila Sarr will help matters and I’m happy to back them to get a result against such a flaky side like Brighton, who will dominate the ball, create chances but may run into a Watford brick wall.

Graham Potter’s men have only landed the odds for their backers twice in their last 17 matches, so the 11/10 on an away win is easily swerved. That makes the 4/5 with Sky Bet on a Watford win or draw the obvious play.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Watford to win or draw (4/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Norwich vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Until Manchester City start showing me otherwise, I want to back against the market expectation of goals in their fixtures.

The expectation for this fixture for total goals is set at 3.5 – that looks high to me as I’m still not fully convinced the City attack is purring to normal levels. There was more evidence of this in the win over Brentford, especially in the first half. It took a penalty to break down the Bees, who were relatively comfortable in defending City’s attacks. First-half struggles in terms of creating chances has been a common theme for City in their last four games.

That Riyad Mahrez penalty vs Brentford is their only first-half goal across those fixtures against the Bees, Southampton, Chelsea and Arsenal with a non-penalty expected goal metric of just 0.35 per first half showcasing a lack of creation against a low block.

The defensive improvement shown by Norwich in their last four matches makes me think the chances of this game being goalless at the break is worth a stab at 100/30 with Sky Bet. The Canaries, who should not pose many problems in attack for City, have kept three first-half clean sheets in their last four games and have significantly tightened up under Dean Smith.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Half-time correct score 0-0 (100/30 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Burnley vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm

Say a little prayer for the Burnley defence. Liverpool are odds-on for good reason and have scored three goals on each of their last three successful visits to Turf Moor.

With no worthwhile angles available in the match-market odds, heading to the cards market is where the path to profit may lead.

With a routine victory on the cards for Liverpool we could see a scenario where the game is all-but over as a contest by 60 minutes. That has got me interested in the game producing a low card count. Liverpool games against lower-ranked teams are usually low-card affairs due to opposition teams unwilling or unable to make the game an open affair. In the last 22 fixtures against teams that finished the season or are currently in the bottom four, Liverpool’s games have averaged just 1.9 cards per 90 minutes.

Interestingly, eight of those fixtures produced no cards for both teams which is becoming a common theme in these type of fixtures as five of the last eight have seen the game end with the card count at zero, including the last two meetings between these two teams.

This one could go the same way with 12/1 available on the chances of no cards as Martin Atkinson is the man in the middle. The lenient official has shown one or less cards in six of his 14 Premier League games this season, including the last two.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3 | BETTING ANGLE: No cards shown (12/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Newcastle vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Here we have two clubs that will argue changing a manager has seen their fortunes surge. Eddie Howe and Steven Gerrard both took charge of their teams for the first time on November 20 and if the season had started on that date, Aston Villa would be seventh and Newcastle would be joint-11th. Both are moving in the right direction and are hard to separate when assessing the match markets.

The draw is the biggest price of all three outcomes and that seems a sensible way to approach this from a betting perspective.

A draw on the road is due for Villa, too.

They have gone 15 away games without one (W6, L9). That may sound like a long run but it is nothing compared to the record draw-less runs. For example, home and away combined, the longest run without a draw in the Premier League is 32 by Spurs in the 18/19 season, while the last team – in the top four leagues of English football – to not draw over an entire season was Darwen FC in the Second Division all the way back in 1897!

Also, there have been 28 longer runs without an away draw in the Premier League than Villa’s current 15 – including two by Aston Villa (a run of 16 and 19). That does not put me off the draw here, though.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Back the draw (11/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Tottenham vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm

There will not be much in this encounter – there never is in a Wolves fixture. The only time in their last 17 Premier League games the margin of victory either way has been greater than one goal came in a 2-0 defeat to Crystal Palace.

Tottenham’s extra quality in forward areas should prove to be the difference, but Spurs will need to play with greater rhythm than they did against Southampton to find a way past a tough Wolves defence.

Sergio Reguilon is overpriced to score the first goal at 40/1 with Sky Bet. It is perhaps surprising that the attack-minded wing-back has only scored once since Antonio Conte took charge such is the licence to get forward he is given in Conte’s 3-5-2 system, especially given the fact he is averaging 4.38 touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes.

The chances are falling his way too. His expected goals data of 0.25 goals per 90 – so he should be scoring every four matches – certainly stands him out as one of Tottenham’s biggest goal threats. He missed a glorious opportunity in the first half against Southampton yet the markets still have not really cottoned on to his chances of scoring. The 40/1 really is a wild price.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Sergio Reguilon to score first (40/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Leicester vs West Ham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

My eyes have flirted with the total match shots market in what is likely to be a game full of chances and attacking intent.

Leicester have faced 16.8 shots per game in the Premier League this season – the most in the division. They have also faced the most overall shots (348) despite only Burnley having played fewer games. Brendan Rodgers is not a manager to change his ways and shut up shop, so while he is still in charge, Leicester will remain a team that give away plenty of chances.

West Ham have also faced a lot of shots on their goal over the past month. The Hammers do defend deeper than most top-ranked teams, so opposition teams do find territory easy to come by. David Moyes’ men have faced a whopping 14.8 shots per 90 minutes in their last nine Premier League fixtures. If you collate both of those averages together you are looking at a total of around 30 shots, therefore with the game predicted to be of an ebbing and flowing nature, the chances of 28 or more match shots look worth a play.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | BETTING ANGLE: 28 or more match shots (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Jones Knows’ best bets….

• Current P+L for the season: +48

1pt on: Southampton to win five or more corners and have 12 or more shots (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

1pt on: 50 or more booking points & Leeds to have 14 or more shots (4/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

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