Premier League predictions: Jones Knows thinks Crystal Palace will beat Tottenham at Selhurst Park | Football News

January 3, 2023 admin

Crystal Palace can beat Tottenham at Selhurst Park on Wednesday as Jones Knows takes aim at the next set of fixtures.

Southampton vs Nottingham Forest, Wednesday 7.30pm

Is it too early in the season for a six-pointer? Well, both teams at the time of writing are odds-on for the drop so it’s easy to class this a game of real significance. And usually in these situations, teams are too concerned about not losing the match rather than going out to force the issue.

The result didn’t go Nathan Jones’ way at Fulham but his side did restrict the Londoners to a low expected goals number with just 0.86 worth of non-penalty expected goals shipped at Craven Cottage, plus the opening goal was a very unfortunate one for the Saints to concede. He’ll be demanding similar defensive assurance in this one against a team that are the lowest away scorers in English football with just one goal scored on the road this season. Eight of the last 11 matches between teams in the relegation zone on or after Matchday 17 of a season have seen under 2.5 goals scored. That looks the smart play here at 8/11 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Leeds vs West Ham, Wednesday 7.45pm

David Moyes can point to a loss of form in his key players this season for West Ham’s stodgy run of results.

Jarrod Bowen has been a guilty party on that front but there were hugely promising signs from him in the defeat at home to Brentford as he was the one desperately trying to inject some urgency into the side with a dominant performance that deserved a goal.

He had seven touches in the opposition box and four strikes at goal – no West Ham player had more when assessing those metrics. The goals have dried up this season for Bowen – he’s scored just two – but this is a player who found the net 20 times in the previous two seasons which catapulted him into England contention.

Catching when he’s about to hit form could prove a profitable strategy as he’s being overlooked in the goalscorer markets such is his recent record. Leeds are happy to afford space to opposition attacking players and this might be the time to catch Bowen at 100/30 with Sky Bet to score in a game where the draw looks the sensible shout.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Aston Villa vs Wolves, Wednesday 8pm

As rivalries go, this one would not hold a candle to many across the world – but with both Birmingham and West Brom down in the Sky Bet Championship, this game does feel a bit spicier. Fans need a derby fix and this clash provides it.

And recent history of meetings do paint the picture of some bad blood. In the past six games in the Premier League, there have been 35 yellows and two red cards shown which works out to an average of 65 booking points per match.

Under the Villa Park lights, I can foresee cards with the 50 or more booking points line worth an interest and Aston Villa being hard to beat once again.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Crystal Palace vs Tottenham, Wednesday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Tottenham’s performance against Aston Villa will have sent alarm bells ringing out. The lack of desire, togetherness and quality was eye-opening – backed up by the metrics where they created a pathetic 0.23 of expected goals in the second half when tasked with chasing the game.

An angle I like to exploit against teams that look dysfunctional and perhaps at the end of a managerial cycle is the opposition to make significant gains at set pieces. Despite Palace being one of the least threatening teams from such situations this season with an expected goals figure of just 2.92 from set pieces, I’m happy to snap up the 28/1 with Sky Bet about Marc Guehi scoring a header. He is usually the point of contact from corner and free-kick situations and looks a big price to add to his tally of two goals since the start of last season.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Chelsea vs Manchester City, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

If Manchester City play anywhere near their intense best then it’s hard to see how Chelsea can get anything out of this one. And the markets agree, with City all the rage at 8/13 with Sky Bet to pick up three points.

Graham Potter’s side remain meandering in this transition phase where a lack of intensity in their game is making them very easy to look past when it comes to making outright match predictions. Jamie Carragher called them “soft” on commentary during the 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest – a fair assessment on a team that conceded a very basic goal from a set piece, something which was highlighted by yours truly in the match prediction.

Pep Guardiola’s side carry a huge threat from set pieces themselves, so Chelsea look vulnerable again from conceding via such a method of attack. My eyes are drawn to John Stones at 14/1 with Sky Bet to score. He hit the post in the draw with Everton but can go one better here.