Premier League betting: Back combined under 10.5 first half goals as the Premier League returns on Boxing Day at 11/4 | Football News

Jones Knows is back with his best bets and has an 11/4 shot to attack across the Boxing Day fixture list involving a lack of first-half goals.

It’s time to awake from your Premier League slumber. Wait, Arsenal are five points clear at the top of the table? I’m going to need more coffee.

From a betting view, adjusting back to the domestic fare after what was a whacky World Cup that was distinctly low on quality but packed full of drama is going to take a few games. Much like the start of a season, my stakes and potential strong angles are going to be thin on the ground in the next week or so, much due to confidence and getting a true feel of how teams/players are adjusting to this strange schedule. Remember, we still have 23 matchdays to make our money.

There are 69 points still up for grabs in this Premier League. It’s a time to watch, recharge and let the flow of the season take shape again before getting too heavily invested. There is no need to come out swinging for the boundaries in the first over. So, it’s just the one low stakes play for Boxing Day from yours truly using a bit of educated guessing theory. As I’m anticipating slow starts to matches, much like the trends show on the first round of fixtures during a season. It could be similar vibes.

P+L = +5.5

2pts on Under 10.5 combined first-half goals to be scored across all 10 Premier League fixtures between 26th-28th Dec (11/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Venturing into unknown territory when it comes to betting can be scary but it can also bring about opportunities if you use knowledge and experience to your benefit. This restart is the unknown territory.

No-one really can foresee how the World Cup and weird mid-season fitness schedules for players will affect match outcomes but it’s certainly worth investing in some so-called “educated guessing” theories to try and get on the right side of a market or two. I’ve tried to analyse this set of Boxing Day fixtures as if it was the start of a new season. So, what trends or patterns can we use from Gameweek Ones from the last 10 seasons to potentially point us towards a profitable path?

From my digging, it revolves around slow starts to matches.

Some teams can burst out of the blocks on the opening day but traditionally games are cagier in nature with players taking fewer risks and keeping it simple with a lack of match practice in the locker. When analysing the last 10 opening weekend sets of matches – a 100-game sample size – the data is showing that goals per game and shots per game are slightly down on the overall average we’d usually see. It only drops 0.1 of a goal and 0.7 of a shot, but despite the small margins it is a sustainable angle to exploit if you were to follow it against market expectation.

The standout factor that has led me to investing in the low first-half goal angle across the next 10 fixtures is the timing of the first goal in a game during the opening weekend fixtures. The average we’ve been seeing this season for the average minute a goal is scored is on 28 minutes, however, when assessing those 100 Gameweek 1 matches, the opening goal average rises to 31 minutes – that is aligned with the theory that games potentially take longer to explode into action with players not quite at full-pelt.

That delay in the opening goal has pricked my ears of a possible below average first half goal count across the 10 Premier League fixtures between Boxing Day and the 28th. The expectation is for 12 goals to be scored in the first half of those 10 fixtures which does seem a little high to me.

I’m liking the look of the under goals price offered by Sky Bet and am happy to chunk out the price a little to 11/4 meaning we’ll need to see 10 or fewer goals scored across the 10 games. We can afford one in each game or thereabouts but I’m hoping the likes of Everton vs Wolves, Leicester vs Newcastle and Arsenal vs West Ham could help us along with a goalless first half or two.

Good luck if tailing.