Premier League top goalscorer betting – Back 33/1 Callum Wilson, says Jones Knows | Football News

In his series of betting previews for the new season, tipster Jones Knows is backing Callum Wilson at 33/1 to win the Premier League Golden Boot.

1pt EW on Callum Wilson to win the Premier League Golden Boot (33/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

For all the hype of summer spending sprees, superstars and Champions League dreams at Newcastle, the reality looks much different. Eddie Howe and the powers that be have plans to slowly build this club. That bodes well for the chances of Callum Wilson being the main man for Howe this season. And why shouldn’t he? Wilson has all the tools to play a leading role in the start of this Newcastle revolution.

Some may need reminding of Wilson’s ability at Premier League level considering his injury record. The 30-year-old has missed 35 games with six different injuries since signing for Newcastle in 2020. But when the striker is on the pitch, there is no doubting his presence as one of the deadliest strikers in the Premier League.

Arsenal felt the full force his powerful running and high-class hold-up play in their harrowing 2-0 defeat at St James’ Park in May – a game which ended their Champions League hopes. Man of the match Wilson ran Arsenal ragged on his return from four months out and backed that performance up by scoring twice on the final day at Burnley.

Wilson still ended last season with eight Premier League goals, making him Newcastle’s top scorer for the second year in a row despite starting just 16 Premier League games.

His basic goals-per-minute record since joining in September 2020 proves his worth as a top-class operator, with his tally of 0.52 every 90 minutes rating him as the ninth-best striker for that metric in the Premier League from players that have scored 15 or more goals in the period Wilson has played for Newcastle.

It’s a record that needs bumping up slightly too considering the team Wilson plays for and their status as a club battling relegation in the Premier League for the majority of his time there.

Therefore, the fact his shot conversion rate is the best of any striker in the Premier League since September 7 in 2020 is a phenomenal piece of data to analyse. His return of 0.62 surpasses even Cristiano Ronaldo and dwarfs the likes of Mohamed Salah and Harry Kane, who are working around the 0.2 mark. Shot conversion rate is a calculation of goals scored divided by shots attempted. It’s a great indicator for the effectiveness of shots taken and goes quite a way to establishing a striker’s true finishing ability.

Newcastle are expected to challenge towards the top six this season judged on their position within the market, where they are given around a 38 per cent chance of breaking in with 15/8 available with Sky Bet. Wilson is likely to be the focal-point striker and penalty taker in a side that should be expected to score around 60 goals if their predicted league table position is correct.

You’d expect a striker of his capabilities and strike rate at this level to be responsible for around 30 per cent of the total goal output, barring any dramatic loss of form or injury – admittedly his body holding up is a worry but that is one of the risks you take with jabbing away at big prices.

Newcastle’s predicted performance level theoretically points towards Wilson’s expected tally hitting around the 18-goal mark – and he could become the first Toon striker since Alan Shearer in 2004 to reach 20 goals in the league.

That would have been enough to finish third in the last two seasons of the Golden Boot race.

All of this adds up to his 33/1 with Sky Bet looking like a strong wager to attack.

His place in the market does seem to me like a value play with many unknowns surrounding recent signings like Erling Haaland (3/1 with Sky Bet) and Darwin Nunez (12/1 with Sky Bet). I’d always be apprehensive of following a foreign player in this type of market in their first season in the Premier League – no foreign player has ever won the Golden Boot in his first season – and in Man City’s case they always seem to share the goals around anyway so Haaland may not be fully guaranteed to be on the end of all the quality chances they create.

The each way terms pay 1/4 for the first four places in the top goalscorer market, meaning we’re getting about 8/1 on the place part of the Wilson bet along with the chance of landing the jackpot if Wilson has a season of all seasons in a free-scoring Newcastle side.

1pt on Callum Wilson making the England World Cup squad (6/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

With such optimism surrounding Wilson being in the perfect spot to have the best season of his career, backing him to make the England World Cup squad also rates as a savvy wager at a double figure price.

The second-in-command striker option in the England squad behind Harry Kane is still there for the taking.

Tammy Abraham, playing very well for Roma but who struggled when handed a chance in the Nations League against Italy, is favourite to make the final 23-man squad of all the central striking back-up options to Kane at 4/6 with Sky Bet but that looks woefully short. After that you have Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 13/8, who needs to regain his fitness and form after a season to forget for Everton and next in are Ollie Watkins (5/1) and Patrick Bamford (5/1).

You have to scroll down to 6/1 with Sky Bet to find Wilson, who is the forgotten man in this market.

He has made four appearances for Gareth Southgate’s England, scoring on his international debut and only start in a 3-0 win over the USA in 2018. The manager isn’t one to close doors on players that find form at the right time and Wilson must be on his radar owing to his all-action style, similar to Watkins, where he has the ability to run in behind and show an aggressive style of centre-forward play. He’s a very different option to Kane.

If he’s scoring goals for Newcastle then he has to enter calculations for Southgate. And the timing of this World Cup could be perfect for Wilson in terms of his ability to start a season very fast.

Wilson has a history of scoring goals early on in a campaign. In the last nine seasons when he has been fit enough to start a season (eight out of nine), Wilson has scored on average five goals in the first eight matchdays of that season.

Overall it works out at an average goals scored per 90 minutes of 0.6 in the first eight matchdays of a season. That compares to a 0.3 average in games over the course of the rest of the season. His body seems to peak after the pre-season period.

If Wilson can stay fit, then I’m expecting him to make an early season statement which should catapult him into the England picture. If he starts fast, then that 6/1 will evaporate quickly.

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